Summary
The stock market got back to its winning ways on Tuesday as the tariff scare faded. That means DeepSeek AI must be really old news. In a bull market, stocks often deal with difficult news and then move higher. The advance was fairly broad, with the S&P 500 (SPX) rising 0.7%, the S&P 100 up 0.9%, and the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 tacking on 1.3%. The S&P MidCap 400 added 0.6%, while the S&P SmallCap 600 jumped 1.2%. Turning to sectors, it was a minor risk-on day, with Energy, Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services rising between 0.9% and 2%, Utilities, Consumer Staples, Financial, and Healthcare were down 0.3% to 0.9%. One of our recent themes has been a break in the U.S. Dollar (USD) and bullish implications for emerging markets. USD topped on January 13 and broke its uptrend on January 21, with the initial pullback falling from $110 to $106.80. The greenback snapped back to $109.75 on February 3, but failed right at former trendline support. USD closed at $108 on Tuesday and appears to be tracing out a double top. The dollar peak coincided with a peak in Treasury yields across the curve. The Commitment of Traders (COT) data was a big reason we were cautious on the greenback. The iShares Emerging Markets (EEM) bottomed on Januar
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